CLSA Limited releases new findings that show Chinese tourism growth is on track to reach 200million outbound travellers by 2020.

CLSA Limited releases new findings that show Chinese tourism growth is on track to reach 200million outbound travellers by 2020, creating an exponential surge in global tourism driven by increased affordability, reduced travel restrictions and growing desire to visit new places.

CLSA’s new report Social Pressures – Chinese tourists keep exploring, a follow up to the landmark 2014 report Chinese Tourists – Exploring New Frontiers, reveals changing preferences of tourists, the impact of social media, CLSA’s bearish view on Hong Kong and an updated regional forecast for travel preferences.

A proprietary survey in December 2014 of more than 400 outbound travellers found Chinese holiday makers are selecting destinations based on more than shopping opportunities alone, with cost, safety, culture, vacation length and visa availability the top five factors influencing destination choice.

Safety is now of significant concern. Survey participants took an average 2.8 trips per year in 2014 compared to 1.8 trips in 2013 with the top five most visited destinations being Hong Kong, Thailand, Macau (dropping to #3 in 2014 from #2 in 2013), South Korea and Japan.

Highly active blogs and social media sites are the prime information sources in China. Online marketing campaigns have been influencing an increasing number of tech-savvy travellers to seek more ‘exotic’ holiday experiences and individual and e-bookings have grown much faster than expected; the percentage who book travel products online rose from 45% to 72%.

There is also a growing market for destination weddings, a relatively new trend among the well-healed, with couples opting to tie-the knot or take honeymoons in romantic destinations such as France and The Maldives.

Destination choices are influenced by a variety of drivers and vary dramatically depending on desired experiences, recommendations by friends and relatives, available time (currently one-week is the standard annual vacation period in China), and discretionary income. For those with time and budget constraints, Japan and South Korea are attractive because they are closer, have more flights, and offer cheaper dining and shopping destinations (except if you want designer handbags, which are cheaper in Europe). New Zealand and Australia rank highly among Chinese travellers in terms of “relaxation and embracing nature”, but are time-consuming and costly, so budget conscious nature-lovers are more inclined to select Thailand or Bali, far a relaxing natural environment.

Despite recent events and rising costs, 60% of those surveyed still plan to travel to Hong Kong next year. However, CLSA feels Hong Kong is losing its mojo and we have cut our forecasts for tourism arrivals in 2020 due to internal and external factors which include infrastructure bottlenecks, the unwelcoming attitude of locals, increasing sophistication of travellers and increased global competition for tourists.

In the current report, CLSA forecasts Chinese outbound visitation with a five-point model that rates destinations in terms of hotel offerings, dining options, tourist attractions, shopping options and accessibility (visas and flights). Using this model we find that Japan, France and Korea will be the overall top three destinations for Chinese tourists in years to come.

Quick Facts:

CLSA remains bullish on the Chinese tourists thematic, predicting departures from China will soar from 98 million in 2013 to 200 million by 2020

Chinese outbound travel is a multi-decade theme, driving structural growth in regional and global airline, gaming, retail, hospitality and internet industries

71% of Chinese seek travel inspiration via social media sites such as WeChat and Weibo

CLSA is bearish on Hong Kong, citing chronic underinvestment in tourism infrastructure, intense regional competition, political issues and strengthening US dollar

According to CLSA’s five-point model Japan, France and Korea will be among the top Chinese tourist destinations in 2015 and beyond