If Starwood were to sell a brand or two, who would be the likely buyers? Shawn A. Turner breaks down the seven most likely suspects.

In late April, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Chairman Bruce Duncan dumped a stinking heap of chum into the brand consolidation waters. During the company’s first-quarter earnings call, Duncan, along with not-at-all-interim CEO Adam Aron, announced Starwood would evaluate a bevy of strategic and financial alternatives.

“No option is off the table,” Duncan told analysts at the time.

In subsequent earnings calls at Starwood’s publicly traded brethren, executives were asked to give their take on consolidation activity within the sector (I’m reading between the lines here, but Starwood was no doubt at the crux of a lot of these questions). Based on the answers these executives gave, I have a pretty solid understanding of who would be willing to jump if Starwood were to dangle a Le Méridien or a W brand in front of potential suitors.

Without further ado, allow me to introduce the seven main contestants in the Starwood Sweepstakes. Because I hate to be wrong, I’ve included reasons why these companies will buy, and why they won’t, so I will be correct regardless of what happens. (Oh, and as for how I came up with the percentages below, that is a proprietary formula and not something I am making up on the spot just now. I’d be happy to license the formula out, though, for the right price. Just ask. You know how to find me!)

Marriott International

Likelihood of buying: 0.1%

Why they will buy

Marriott’s not adverse to buying brands, and the company certainly has the financial capacity to make that happen. Buying one of Starwood’s could also bring about some international exposure, which I’m sure President and CEO Arne Sorenson would love to see.

Why they won’t buy

Because he said that’s highly unlikely and my heart won’t let me think of Arne as a liar.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings

Likelihood of buying: 1%

Why they will buy

I mean, everything else Hilton has done of late has turned to gold, so why not?

Why they won’t buy

Why mess with a good thing? The company is on a roll. The stock is up. The sky is blue. All CEO Chris Nassetta has to do is kick his feet up and watch the money come in, right? Why risk a miss on a major deal and mess all of that up?

Choice Hotels International

Likelihood of buying: 35%

Why they will buy

President and CEO Steve Joyce has an itchy trigger finger. During the company’s recent convention, Joyce said the company had tried to acquire Hilton Worldwide Holdings’ DoubleTree brand prior to Hilton’s IPO.

Choice also is trying to ramp up its exposure to the higher chain scales, so the acquisition of a Starwood brand would be another step in that direction.

Why they won’t buy

Choice has had a lot of problems ramping up its upper-scale Cambria brand. Granted, the brand launched at the crest of the downturn, but given the struggle it’s had pushing into the upper-scale space, it’s possible those struggles would continue even with a Starwood brand under its belt.

InterContinental Hotels Group

Likelihood of buying: 40%

Why they will buy

Having already snatched Kimpton, would it be a stretch to say IHG will go after another lifestyle-ish brand? Maybe Aloft?

Why they won’t buy

Yes. It is a stretch. Post-Kimpton, the company appears to be focusing on its core brands right now.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation

Likelihood of buying: 50%

Why they will buy

President and CEO Mark Hoplamazian said during the company’s earnings call this quarter that the company would be open to adding a new brand. “We would consider purchasing a brand that is not branded Hyatt,” he said. “I think the key from our perspective would be to assess the brand equity in that brand.”

Why they won’t buy

In the past Hyatt has shown a bias toward acquiring brands in order to convert to a Hyatt flag. I don’t see that as being the best strategy when it comes to buying one of Starwood’s brands. Why throw away all that brand equity? Who would ever do something so stup … Oh. Right.

Hospitality Properties Trust

Likelihood of buying: 65%

Why they will buy

President and COO John G. Murray seemed receptive to the idea of bringing onboard a competitor’s wayward brand. “If there is consolidation of one type or another, or brand management companies that are seeking to go more asset-light than they currently are, that’s an opportunity for HPT to be a business partner in those opportunities,” he said. And don’t forget, HPT already owns the Sonesta brand portfolio so the company has some experience at running a flag.

The real estate investment trust also has shown an appetite for big deals before, having tried to work out a deal with NH Hotels a couple years ago.

Why they won’t buy

So, yeah. About that deal. The REIT might be snake bit when it comes to major transactions. The NH Hotels deal came crumbling down when a lender objected to the proposed $375-million investment. The universe might not let HPT have nice things.

Wyndham Worldwide Corporation

Likelihood of buying (it all): 66%

Why they will buy

I have a gut feeling (and with a gut as big as mine, my gut feelings are usually correct) that Wyndham is going to look to give itself a violent shove to the top of the hotel heap in making a play for Starwood as a whole in a move that will send ripples through the industry for years. CFO Thomas Conforti already has said his company is not going to shy away from big transactions, according to Bloomberg.

Why they won’t buy

To stunt on my prognostication skills and make me look bad.

There you have it. Starwood can just fire its strategic reviewers right now, seeing as how I have already done a lot of the legwork here in identifying potential suitors. You’re welcome.