Although unclear is whether Blackstone will include all 10 Hilton brands in the IPO or retain ownership of a select few. More certain is what the IPO says about Blackstone’s view of the cycle.

　　Where the alpha leads, the pack follows.

　　The hotel industry is notorious for its pack mentality, which has materialized most visibly in disciplines such as design and brand segmentation. (One need only attend an industry conference to hear redundant talks of commoditization for proof.)

　　But the pack mentality exists on the real estate side of the business as well. While some lone wolves do exist, the vast majority of investors seek opportunities like a school of fish, swimming en masse within the currents of larger macroeconomic waters.

　　Blindly following the movement of others can provide a false sense of security, even as you swim into the open mouth of a shark. Adjusting course based on the thoughtful execution of the alpha dog? That’s a whole different story.

　　Alpha dogs are alpha dogs for a reason. If they’re not the strongest, then odds are they’re the smartest. That means they have a better sense of their surroundings and how to navigate them than the rest of the pack.

　　In the hotel industry, I can think of no more prominent alpha than Blackstone. And guess what? It just bolted in a new direction.

　　Late Wednesday, the private equity firm filed for its much anticipated initial public offering of Hilton Worldwide. The details are still fuzzy. The $1.25-billion initial value, which was “estimated solely for the purpose of determining the amount of the (SEC) registration fee,” according to the SEC filing, likely will inflate significantly.

　　Also unclear is whether Blackstone will include all 10 Hilton brands in the IPO or retain ownership of a select few.

　　More certain is what the IPO says about Blackstone’s view of the cycle.

　　There’s probably no smarter company in business, so when Blackstone says it’s time to liquidate, it must mean we’re heading toward the top of the economic cycle, or at least in this case, the hotel real estate cycle.

　　That was back when Blackstone had only taken steps toward an IPO of Extended Stay America, another of its hotel portfolios. The Hilton IPO was still a ways off in the future—or so we thought.

　　Now that Blackstone has filed to take its most valuable hotel portfolio public, you can highlight, underline and put a star next to the main point: The firm thinks we’re nearing the top of the cycle, and they’re looking to cash out.

　　This shouldn’t come as a surprise. The hotel industry is four years into a recovery. The last growth cycle, by comparison, lasted approximately five years.

　　These things don’t last forever, folks. If the smartest guys in the room say now’s the time to liquidate, they’re doing so for a reason.

　　Will the bottom fall out tomorrow? No. (At least I hope not.) If we operate under the assumption that Blackstone knows exactly what it’s doing, it means we’ve still got a year or two of growth left. The actual offering of Hilton stock, in whatever form it takes, likely won’t happen until early 2014 by the time all the necessary regulatory boxes are checked.

　　And expect more growth even after that. Blackstone wouldn’t sell if it couldn’t entice investors with the promise of more growth. Conducting an offering at the absolute peak of the market would imply stock values have nowhere to go but down, meaning Blackstone would be stuck with devalued shares of its own entity.

　　Various industry data firms corroborate this view, with forecasts projecting growth through at least 2014. Amanda Hite, president and COO of STR, said during the Hotel Data Conference that RevPAR will end the year up 5.7% followed by 6% growth through 2014.

　　PKF Hospitality Research has issued an even more bullish forecast, in which RevPAR will increase 5.9% and 7.2% this year and next, respectively.

　　Beyond that is anyone’s guess, which is why following the alpha dog might not be a bad approach.